Wishing everyone a Happy New Year 2021!
Government rolled out the new export incentive scheme RODTEP on 31st Dec to be effective from 1st Jan 2021. However with no rates declared it was like a curtain closure for the previous scheme and more chaos and confusion for exporters. Exporters are a distressed lot with ever increasing freights and no credit till date of the previous incentive scheme from april to December 2020.
Cumin: Sowing seems to be 100-110% percent of usual and weather was good up to now and conducive for better yields. Today cloudy atmosphere at many places in Gujarat, MP and Rajasthan. This stopped the downward movement on NCDEX and prices inched up today. Weathermen predict the climate to remain unchanged and dense fog should prevail over West Rajasthan, a prime cumin growing area.
Locusts which were a big issue last year which resulted in crop damage and also widespread use of Chlorpyrifos have again creeped up in Ethiopia from neighbouring Somalia. Conditions were favourable for the population to grow and could be a factor this year. However we are better prepared this year with increased monitoring and warnings.
Few groups wanted cumin to weaken over exchange even after good continuous buying from China in the last 15 days. This caused panic last week amongst stockists who were fed up by the weakness.
Crops would be delayed due to late sowing. Ramadan is early this year. This can be a factor in March if arrivals don’t match Chinese demand.
Overall sowing seems close to 80% but ‘Halvad’ which had record production last year reports only 50% sowing. This will not allow grades like Singapore to be as cheap as last year. April is the best time to take advantage of price and color. Feb/ March has a lot of local demand for Good green color grades. Last year due to lockdown demand was subdued in March but expect a stronger demand this time around.
Bumper sowing in Gujarat reaching 180% of average should result in increased exports from India considering levels very competitive to other origins. However current dense fog and clouds over MP state is not good for the crop in that part. Feb / March would be a good time to get green colored goods which fetch premium in Middle East markets.
Indian prices are reaching attractive levels and orders have already started pouring in. Good winter demand will keep price fall in check. India is poised to exploit the current supply shortage in world markets.
Sowing is more this year by 30/40% however carryover would be less considering 2020 crop shortage. China seems eager for new crop giving indications of higher purchase for 2021 crop.